What is the housing market going to do? What is the forecast for the housing market in Utrecht? Today I saw a message from Aegon in my inbox. Mortgage rates are continuing to fall. My first thought was: OK, that means there's no tipping point in sight for a long while yet. We've previously written several blogs about corona and the housing market. And also about the changes in the housing market because of corona.
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Is the housing market going to crash?
Gé is currently at a hotel in Breda. He's taking a course on property investment. He's there with lots of people who want to invest in property or already do. Half the group thinks the housing market will crash within a very short time. The other half thinks it will take more than a bit of unemployment. We also think it will take more. What is the forecast for the housing market in Utrecht? There's huge demand for homes and they're remarkably affordable. You're thinking: affordable? Huh, what, where? Affordable homes? I mean relatively affordable, of course. Because interest rates are so low, you can borrow a lot with low interest costs. As long as rents stay high and interest rates stay low, the market won't simply crash.
Demand for homes
At the start of the coronavirus crisis I wrote that demand for homes had suddenly increased. It kept increasing until 4 weeks ago. At the moment around 37,500 people are still looking for a home in Utrecht. Including new-build supply, around 1,300 homes are available. When I wrote the first blog about corona, there were 31,000 seekers and 1,200 homes available. At the moment the scarcity indicator is 1.6. That means that, as a buyer, you can on average choose from 1.6 homes that meet your requirements. In the last quarter prices rose by 4.9%. That's a huge price rise.
Transfer tax
Transfer tax always feels a bit like a fine, doesn't it? If, as a first-time buyer aged 18-35, you buy your first home with a completion date in 2021, you don't have to pay the 2% transfer tax. From 1 January, investors have to pay 8% transfer tax. At the moment you can see that parents buying a home for their children, and investors, are paying an average of 3% more for a completion date still in 2020. After all, that saves 6% compared with completion in 2021. Conversely, you see that first-time buyers want to, and can, pay 2% more. So I also expect this to cause an extra price rise in the coming months for the homes being bought now.
Buying or selling
Would you like to buy or sell a home? We're happy to tell you all the ins and outs of the housing market.
