Prinsjesdag 2026: what does it mean for your home and the Utrecht housing market?

Prinsjesdag (Budget Day, when the Dutch government presents its plans for the coming year). Usually one of those days when billions, percentages and tax measures get thrown at you and at the end you mostly think: nice one, guys, but what does this actually mean for me? It's often just a bit complicated and abstract, and it often leads to knee-jerk panic.

Contents

• The economy is still growing, but it's nothing to write home about
• Paying more tax on your income
• Good news for first-time buyers: the threshold goes to €615,000
• Investors will actually pay less transfer tax
• And then box 3, because things are still a mess there
• Paid off your mortgage? Then you'll actually feel the Wet Hillen more
• The WOZ value is probably going up again
• Energy is getting more expensive too, especially if you use a lot of gas
• Bought an apartment? Things are changing for VvEs too
• And then the big problem: we still don't have enough homes
• And that's precisely where Utrecht gets interesting
• What does this mean for the Utrecht homebuyer?
• And what does it mean for the Utrecht homeowner?
• Will this make house prices rise or fall?
• So what would we do?

Because in the end, all those figures are connected. How much money people have left over each month partly determines how much they can borrow and spend on a home. The mortgage rate then determines what that loan costs. Taxes influence whether it's attractive to buy, keep or let out a home, and meanwhile the government is trying to reduce the housing shortage by putting billions into housebuilding. And it's precisely that interplay that's interesting for the Utrecht housing market.

The economy is still growing, but it's nothing to write home about

The Dutch economy keeps growing, but not spectacularly. The cabinet is counting on economic growth of 1.4% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. At the same time, inflation remains relatively high. The CPB (the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) expects inflation of around 2.7% for 2027.

For households, that means life is getting more expensive again. According to the Prinsjesdag forecast, median purchasing power will fall by around 0.1% in 2027. Without the additional measures in the Miljoenennota (the national budget), that fall would have been bigger. Among other things, a higher employed person's tax credit and an adjustment to income tax soften the blow.

And that's exactly where the link with the housing market begins. House prices aren't determined only by how many homes are for sale. In the end, it's also about how much money people have available each month and how much of it can go towards their mortgage.

Paying more tax on your income

Income tax is changing too. In 2027 the rate in the first bracket becomes 36.23% up to an income of €39,247. Between €39,247 and €78,426 the rate becomes 38.16%, and above that the top rate stays at 49.50%.

For most homebuyers the effect of this on the housing market isn't huge, but all those changes together do determine how much net income is left each month. And that matters, because in the end we don't buy a home from our gross salary: we have to pay the monthly costs out of what actually comes in, net.

Good news for first-time buyers: the threshold goes to €615,000

For Utrecht, we think this is one of the most interesting changes. Are you between 18 and 35, are you going to live in the home yourself, and have you not used the starters' exemption (startersvrijstelling) before? Then, subject to conditions, you don't have to pay any transfer tax. In 2026 the maximum property value for this is €555,000. From 2027 it will be €615,000. And in Utrecht that difference is pretty relevant. It will mean that homes that currently get stuck at €555,000 get more room for overbidding.

If, as a first-time buyer in 2027, you buy a home of €600,000, for example, and you meet the conditions, you won't pay 2% transfer tax. That saves €12,000. That isn't extra mortgage capacity, because you normally pay transfer tax out of your own funds. But it does mean a first-time buyer may need thousands of euros less of their own money for the same purchase. That might also mean just that new kitchen or furnishing the whole place.

And that's immediately the other side of the story. If a larger group of first-time buyers can suddenly use the exemption up to €615,000, buying in the €555,000 to €615,000 price range becomes more attractive. Especially in a city like Utrecht, where lots of apartments and smaller homes sit around that price level, that could create extra demand and push prices up.

So in a market with little supply, a tax measure meant to help first-time buyers can also partly end up in house prices. After all, more financial room doesn't solve the fundamental problem: in the end, there also have to be enough homes.

Investors will actually pay less transfer tax

That might sound strange after years in which the government made it more expensive for investors to buy homes, but from 2027 the cabinet wants to lower the rate for homes the buyer won't live in themselves from 8% to 7%. Think of rental homes, second homes and holiday homes. The plan does still have to get through the Tweede Kamer and the Eerste Kamer (the lower and upper houses of parliament).

One of the aims is to make investing in rental homes more attractive again. On top of that, €500 million is being made available for a subsidy for mid-rent homes.

That too could eventually affect the owner-occupier market. In recent years, a relatively large number of former rental homes came up for sale because letting became less attractive. If investing in rental homes becomes a bit more interesting again, that trend could weaken.

Is one percentage point less transfer tax enough to bring investors back en masse? We certainly wouldn't dare to predict that. Returns, rental rules, financing costs and box 3 are at least as important.

And then box 3, because things are still a mess there

For the home you live in yourself, box 3 doesn't change: your main residence stays in box 1 for tax purposes. And the surplus value of your own home won't suddenly be taxed in box 3 either.

However, if you have a second home, a rental property, investments or crypto, for example, then box 3 is relevant. The tax rate stays at 36% in 2027. Under the current plans, the tax-free allowance rises from €59,357 to €60,098 per person. For other assets, including investments, crypto and second homes, the deemed return rises from 6% in 2026 to 6.37% in 2027. If you can show that your actual return is lower, you can, subject to conditions, use the counter-evidence scheme (tegenbewijsregeling).

Meanwhile, the much-discussed switch to a system that taxes actual returns remains uncertain. The Tweede Kamer previously approved the Wet werkelijk rendement box 3 (the box 3 actual returns act), but its further handling and design haven't been finalised. The intended introduction is 2028 at the earliest.

For property investors, that creates an interesting contrast: buying a home gets slightly cheaper thanks to the lower transfer tax, but owning it remains anything but a party from a tax point of view.

Paid off your mortgage? Then you'll actually feel the Wet Hillen more

This is one of those measures that gets far less attention, but does actually cost some homeowners money.

Do you have no mortgage, or only a small one? Then you have little mortgage interest to deduct, while you are still subject to the eigenwoningforfait (the notional income added to your taxable income for owning your home). For years, the Wet Hillen largely compensated for that difference. It encouraged homeowners to pay off their mortgage properly. That was rewarded.

However, that compensation is being phased out, and since 2026 that has been happening faster. In 2027, 67.07% of the Hillen deduction remains, compared with 71.87% in 2026. As a result, the scheme will eventually disappear in 2041 instead of 2048.

So the strange consequence is that precisely the people who have neatly paid off their mortgage for years will pay more and more tax on their own home. It really feels a bit like the rules being changed mid-game… And there's something else.

The WOZ value is probably going up again

The Waarderingskamer (the body that supervises property valuations) expects the WOZ values (the municipal property valuations) landing on your doormat in early 2027 to be, on average nationally, around 5.5% to 7.5% higher. That's based on the change in value between 1 January 2025 and 1 January 2026.

A higher WOZ value feeds through in several places. The eigenwoningforfait, among other things, is linked to it, and some municipal taxes also use the WOZ as their basis, although a rise in the WOZ doesn't automatically mean your municipal bill goes up by the same percentage.

So for someone with a largely paid-off home, two effects can be at play at the same time: a higher WOZ and less compensation via the Wet Hillen. That's exactly why you should never really look at tax measures in isolation.

Energy is getting more expensive too, especially if you use a lot of gas

In 2027 the energy tax on gas rises from 60.07 to 61.63 cents per m³ excluding VAT, while the tax rate on electricity actually falls from 9.16 to 8.80 cents per kWh. Higher network costs are also expected: according to Vereniging Eigen Huis (the Dutch homeowners' association), an average of around €89 a year extra for electricity and €52 for gas. Here too, there's a housing market effect behind it.

A well-insulated home with a heat pump and low energy demand doesn't just have a nice energy label. The difference in monthly costs compared with a poorly insulated home could keep growing. And a better energy label also gets you a lower mortgage rate… At the same time, it's a bit of a hollow gesture. Because with feeding power back into the grid, none of it is nearly as attractive anymore. On the one hand you want a better label, and on the other you don't want to generate too much. Because then it costs you money.

That's why we expect energy efficiency to become less and less of a nice extra for buyers and more and more part of the calculation. Especially when someone already has to borrow the maximum, structurally lower energy costs can be pretty relevant.

Bought an apartment? Things are changing for VvEs too

This is interesting for Utrecht too, because a large part of the owner-occupied housing stock consists of apartments.

The cabinet wants to make an extra €25 million available for the Subsidieregeling verduurzaming voor Verenigingen van Eigenaars (the sustainability subsidy scheme for VvEs, the owners' associations of apartment buildings). There are also plans to have VvEs look thirty years ahead in their long-term maintenance plan and to include sustainability in it more explicitly. From 1 January 2027, VvEs will be able to hold their meetings digitally.

That might sound like a detail, but when buying an apartment we look more and more closely at the financial health of the VvE. Not just: how much is in the account? But also: what needs to happen over the next ten, twenty or thirty years, and has enough been set aside for it? So a low VvE contribution isn't automatically good news. Sometimes it mainly means the bill comes later.

And then the big problem: we still don't have enough homes

All the tax changes are interesting, but in the end this probably remains one of the most important factors in the Dutch housing market. There aren't enough suitable homes. The square metres aren't quite distributed properly right now.

That's why the cabinet is setting aside €7 billion up to and including 2035 to speed up housebuilding. Of that, €2.3 billion goes to the Realisatiestimulans, under which municipalities can receive €7,000 per affordable home built. There will be €940 million for large-scale housing development sites, €650 million for the Woningbouwimpuls and €205 million for innovation, scaling up and better use of existing buildings.

In addition, according to the cabinet, a combination of measures will give housing associations around €28 billion in extra investment capacity. There will be extra money for housing for older people, students and first-time buyers, and the Nationaal Fonds Betaalbare Koop gets an extra €100 million. That's serious money. But money alone doesn't build a house, of course. You need land, permits, builders, infrastructure and above all electricity. And wouldn't you know it, it's exactly those last things that are moving pretty sluggishly…

And that's precisely where Utrecht gets interesting

Utrecht aims to add around 3,000 homes a year on average. The municipal plans count on an expansion of around 57,400 homes up to 2045. But the municipality itself also warns of uncertainty caused by, among other things, the full electricity grid. For around 20% to 25% of the future homes in the planning, it is uncertain whether they will be built if the grid connection problems continue.

At the same time, Utrecht wants to keep building on a large scale, including in Groot Merwede, Rijnenburg, Lunetten-Koningsweg and Overvecht. For us, that may well be the most important link between Prinsjesdag and the Utrecht housing market.

The government is trying to free up billions to increase supply. But as long as that supply isn't actually built, the existing stock stays scarce. A subsidy announced today won't produce an extra 1930s house in Tuinwijk, Oog in Al or Wittevrouwen tomorrow. And that, of course, is an important difference between the national housing market and Utrecht.

What does this mean for the Utrecht homebuyer?

For first-time buyers, raising the exemption threshold to €615,000 is clearly interesting. If you buy below that threshold, you could potentially need thousands of euros less of your own money. At the same time, it's precisely around that threshold that we'd keep a close eye on the market. If lots of first-time buyers get the same extra room, that doesn't automatically mean you'll suddenly find it easier to buy.

For people moving up the ladder, less spectacular things change on the tax front. For them, the mortgage rate, borrowing capacity, surplus value and above all the available supply are probably much more important. Do you still have an old mortgage with a very low rate? Then, before you start looking, have someone check whether, and under what conditions, you can take that rate with you.

And are you buying an apartment? Please don't just look at the size of the monthly VvE contribution. A contribution of €125 can look attractive until the MJOP (the long-term maintenance plan) shows that the roof, the facade and the window frames are all due at the same time and you have to chip in €40,000… While your upturned piggy bank has already gone into buying a home.

And what does it mean for the Utrecht homeowner?

If you have a readily saleable home in a popular Utrecht neighbourhood, we don't see anything in these Prinsjesdag plans that will suddenly make the structural shortage of that kind of home disappear and send the value of your home plummeting. Except, that is, that interest rates are rising.

A lot of money is being freed up for building, and we can only see that as positive. More supply is ultimately healthy for the housing market. But adding new homes takes years, and what's more, new-build isn't the same product as Utrecht's existing housing stock. A new apartment in Groot Merwede, for example, doesn't compete one-to-one with a 1930s house with a garden in Tuinwijk or Elinkwijk.

We do expect differences within the market to become increasingly important. Energy label, VvE, maintenance, price range, neighbourhood, outdoor space and type of home will determine how much competition there is between buyers. And that's exactly why your sales strategy becomes more important.

Will this make house prices rise or fall?

That's of course the question everyone would most like answered. But it would be far too easy to draw a house price prediction from a single Prinsjesdag measure. The mortgage rate and, with it, affordability are the most important factors in the price.

That's because there are forces working in both directions. Higher costs and slightly falling purchasing power put a brake on what people can spend. On the other hand, there's still economic growth, a scarcity of homes and tax measures that actually give certain buyers more room. At the same time, the cabinet is trying to structurally increase supply with investments worth billions.

And we haven't even mentioned the mortgage rate yet. In the end, that can make far more difference to affordability than a change of a few tenths of a percent in a tax rate. This could well turn into an exciting one for the housing market.

There are still too few homes in the places where lots of people want to live. And Utrecht may well be the perfect example of that.

Here's a simple table with an explanation:

So what would we do?

Are you a first-time buyer expecting to buy at around €555,000 to €615,000? Then have someone work out properly what waiting until 2027 could actually get you, but don't just look at the tax saving. What if the same house has become more expensive by then because of rising interest rates… Make sure you get good advice and lock in your rate now.

Do you own a home and are you thinking of selling? Then don't just look at the national news. There is no such thing as the Utrecht housing market. The market for a €450,000 apartment in Kanaleneiland is something completely different from the market for a family home in Oog in Al or an upstairs flat in Wittevrouwen. Every home is different; every home needs a different strategy.

And do you want to buy and sell? Then it gets really interesting, because on the one hand high prices work in your favour and on the other hand they don't. Timing is everything then.

So what does Prinsjesdag 2026 ultimately mean for the Utrecht housing market? Lots of small changes, a few sizeable investments and above all a great many dials being turned. But for now, one thing isn't changing: a good home in a sought-after location in Utrecht remains scarce.