The Utrecht housing market: what will 2026 bring?

The Utrecht housing market: what will 2026 bring? The housing market in Utrecht remains exceptionally tight, despite signs of cooling on paper and somewhat fewer viewings. While national statistics show a slight fall in average prices, the reality is that good-quality family homes are still scarce. And highly sought after: people are still jostling in the queue.

Contents

• The world economy and investment climate: the influence of the US
• Is 2008 repeating itself? Parallels and differences with the housing crisis
• Different views on the housing market.
• Tax burden and rental rules drive investors away
• Effect on supply and prices in Utrecht
• High interest rates: the lock-in effect and less mobility
• Expats on the buying market due to a lack of rental homes
• Wage rises and affordability
• Political plans and mortgage interest relief
• New-build: relief on the way in Utrecht?
• Conclusion: paradoxes and prospects
• What would really be needed?

Meanwhile, new regulations and tax changes are causing major shifts: private landlords are pulling out en masse, the rental supply is shrinking and some tenants (such as expats) are being forced onto the buying market. At the same time, interest rate developments, wage rises and political plans continue to shape the future of the housing market.

I'm rarely lost for words. Precisely because I always pore over all the figures and write these blogs, I can always give viewers a clear analysis of the housing market. But last week someone shared an analysis that really got me thinking. He thought the market was going to collapse because of everything happening in America. I'll explain my analysis, but also his. I'll start with his:

The world economy and investment climate: the influence of the US

He said: ‘A huge number of American government employees have just been laid off and the airports are closing. This means we are on the eve of a major crisis. Just like in 2008’. I wrote an earlier blog about Trump and the geopolitical tensions. The government employees were out on the street. During this shutdown, thousands of American government employees even received permanent dismissal letters, something unusual, because normally they simply return after a budget agreement. This uncertainty is making financial markets nervous worldwide. It makes the stock markets very uncertain. Investors became more cautious in the autumn of 2025, although it did not lead to panic. In fact, many investors are counting on the American central bank (Federal Reserve) actually lowering interest rates gradually because of the weaker outlook. The Fed is expected to bring rates down further towards 3% in 2026. This means the international climate could become more favourable for investment by 2026. You then have lower interest rates. Lower rates reduce financing costs and can (re)kindle interest in property. In the Netherlands we are hugely dependent on affordability, because we can borrow up to 100% of the market value. Still, you do notice that consumer confidence is dropping somewhat as a result. But lower interest rates will lead to higher house prices.

Is 2008 repeating itself? Parallels and differences with the housing crisis

The words housing crisis immediately bring back memories of 2008. Now too we see some similarities with that period, but there are important differences. Mortgage rates rose sharply in 2022 and 2023. This dealt the housing market a heavy blow. But we are now already back above the price level from before the dip. In 2008, however, a global credit bubble burst. As a result, banks ran into trouble and house prices in the Netherlands eventually plunged by more than 20% between 2008 and 2013. Almost nobody saw such a steep fall coming at the time, not even the planning agencies, so we can never completely rule out another sharp price fall.

Still, conditions are more stable now. Banks are in a stronger position and mortgage holders generally have more equity and fixed-rate contracts. Moreover, there is a structural housing shortage. Whereas in 2008 the market fell for years, the recent dip was much shorter: from summer 2023 prices were already picking up again. So it was a very short dip. In the blog about overbidding you can also see some nice charts with the figures. An important difference is that there are now few forced sales.

Unemployment is low and homeowners often have savings buffers. There are also fewer risky loans (such as interest-only loans up to 110% of the home's value, practices that were not unusual before 2008). When I started working in estate agency in 2013, the market was completely flat on its back. Mortgages were interest-only, for more than the home was worth, and then on top of that people lost their jobs. As a layperson I kept looking at those calculations and thinking: ‘Who thought in advance that this was a good idea?’ You could see from a mile off that certain people were going to get into trouble.

This does not mean the coast is completely clear. If the economy unexpectedly slides into a recession or interest rates rise again, demand could still stall. But for now, major institutions expect moderate growth rather than a crash. De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), for example, forecasts that the average house price will keep rising in 2025 and 2026 as well, albeit less sharply than recently. Then again, those banks' forecasts are usually not quite right 😉 I expect the average price in Utrecht to rise by about 5% next year, up to a maximum of 10%. The same as last year.

The table below shows some forecasts:

Note: DNB = De Nederlandsche Bank (the Dutch central bank); RaboResearch = Rabobank's economic research bureau. We see that all forecasters expect further growth, but Rabobank lowered its 2026 forecast slightly (from 6.6% to 5.5%) when it became clear that extra housing supply was tempering price pressure somewhat. In short, the fundamentals look healthier today than in 2008, which makes a crash less likely.

Different views on the housing market.

So, because of the weaker American position, this viewer thought we would end up in an economic crisis that would send house prices crashing completely. I myself think things are going to stabilise somewhat now. A number of measures have brought an enormous amount of extra supply onto the market. In June our supply was up about 50% on the previous year. At the moment the increase for 2025 is 28.7%. That really is a big increase. The last big wave is now on the market, so that the sales can still be completed at the notary before 31 December 2025. I expect supply to decrease somewhat after that. There are no rental homes left to be had, and at the same time the supply of homes for sale is growing enormously.

Because of the high prices and high interest rates, we do see attractive new and luxury new-build homes on offer, but because of the enormously high costs people take on with a new-build home, we see that moving up the ladder is stalling there. But we also see many people leaving for Spain, for example, because they are fed up with the Netherlands and are looking for a bigger house and a freer life. I expect us to move into calmer waters. On 30 June 2025 a large group of the last temporary rental contracts expired; on 30 June 2026 the last homes to come free under the new legislation will follow. We can already see the enormous wave of extra supply easing a little.

Tax burden and rental rules drive investors away

One of the most impactful changes is the rising wealth tax in box 3 (the Dutch tax on savings and investments). As of 1 January 2026, the notional return on other assets (including second homes) will be increased to around 7.8%. Investors pay 36% tax on this, which comes down to a tax burden of around 2.8% of the home's value per year. This is often higher than the actual net rental yield, especially now that the leegwaarderatio (the valuation discount for let properties) was also cut sharply in 2024. For many small private landlords there is no room left: they would (almost) be making a loss on their let home.

As a result, we saw a big wave of supply come onto the market before the end of the year. Many investors want to sell their home quickly, with completion before 31 December 2025.

On top of that, the new rental legislation has them in a bind. Since 1 July 2024, temporary rental contracts have largely been abolished: new tenants must be given an open-ended contract straight away. The last temporary contracts run out on 30 June 2026. After that I expect there to be much less extra supply and for supply to normalise. Landlords now face a choice: keep letting without knowing what regulations and tax burden are coming, or sell the house. In practice we see the homes being sold once a contract expires. Because minister De Jonge has also introduced a rent ceiling for mid-market rentals with the Wet Betaalbare Huur (WBH) (Affordable Rent Act), many landlords in Utrecht are forced to let at a loss. The result is a wave of rental homes being sold off, the so-called uitpondgolf (sell-off wave).

Private investors are pulling out en masse

They are selling their properties, often flats in slightly less favourable locations or less well maintained. The combination of higher box 3 tax, stricter rental rules, mandatory sustainability upgrades and a lack of policy continuity makes letting unattractive. As one investor remarked in NRC: “It's about our pension… I don't actually want to sell at all, but it's too uncertain for me.” Many of these small landlords had 1 to 3 properties as their pension provision. Entrepreneurs, just like we are ourselves. We see that these landlords were asking very fair rents. But they have to seek their fortune elsewhere. In that respect, these rules and the tax pressure are good for our business in Spain. Landlords feel cornered by the ‘pile-up of new laws’. The chair of the developers' association Bouwend Nederland even proposed withdrawing the Wet Betaalbare Huur again, because it “does more harm than good”.

‘Slum landlord’ and ‘property baron’ are terms you hear a lot. They carry a very negative image. But don't we all just want to be able to start out in a nice rental home? It's really not healthy to buy a very expensive house straight away with your first relationship, or on your first salary. And those poor students... I myself am enormously grateful for my student years in a student house. You learn so much from it.

If you look at yourself really honestly: would you take the risk of letting out a house, with damage to your home and loss of rent, when it would cost you money every month on top of that? Of course not. Then we can shout very loudly: ‘Yes, but the house is going up in value’. Uh, yes, but it can also go down in value.

It's not only small landlords who are dropping out. Large investors and foreign funds are also avoiding the Dutch market because of the high costs. Investors are taking their money abroad, a trend that is also visible in Utrecht. The Kadaster (the Dutch Land Registry) notes that since 2023 the number of sales by private investors has been much higher than their purchases. And not even everything has been registered yet.

Consequences: the supply of homes for sale is increasing, but the rental supply is shrinking. The WBH, which was supposed to protect mid-market rents, has ironically led to fewer mid-market rentals and more expensive ones. It's so annoying to have to say ‘I told you so’. But I think many people in the market are thinking it. I'm so grateful that we are just a bit ‘older’ and were therefore able to buy houses much earlier. Many middle-income groups are now falling through the cracks. You earn too much for social housing, but too little for another rental and/or owner-occupied home. In short, the measures are driving landlords out of the market, and with that the problem is shifted onto first-time buyers and tenants. They are the real losers.

Effect on supply and prices in Utrecht

At first glance, the market for homes for sale seems to be getting a little more breathing space. At the beginning of October 2025 there were around 3,496 homes for sale in Utrecht, 13% more than a year earlier. This increase is mainly because former rental flats are going up for sale en masse. Many of these homes are relatively small and simply finished (often 60-80 m², ex-rental flats) and are located in less popular neighbourhoods. As a result, first-time buyers have slightly more choice at the bottom end of the market. For example, the average asking price of an ex-rental flat on Funda was around €425,000 for 73 m², which in the Utrecht context may be called ‘affordable’. At the same time, this also pushes down prices across the market as a whole. There is a lot more choice.

Still, this is no solution to the shortage. The total housing supply is barely growing structurally, since many sold rental homes end up housing fewer people (an investor's flat that goes from two tenants to one buyer means less housing on balance). I wrote an earlier blog about this: ‘Our homes are too big’. The pressure in the market is shifting: anyone who now wants to rent in Utrecht and can't pay more than €2,000 a month is having a really hard time. Mid-market rental flats nowadays get hundreds of responses and are online for just a day, after which frustrated home-seekers turn to buying after all.

We are also suddenly seeing many more expats on the buying market. They can no longer rent and now have to buy if they want to stay in Utrecht. These former tenants are now competing directly with first-time buyers on the buying market. The tiny flats in neighbourhoods such as Kanaleneiland and Overvecht, for example, are now being sold to ex-tenants. These are often not the homes they dreamed of, but the only option if they don't want to move back in with their parents.

Tightness indicator

The tightness indicator (the number of available homes per buyer) illustrates the situation. In the city of Utrecht it hovers around just 1.0 (in popular neighbourhoods even 0.7), whereas a balanced market should be around 5. We see that it has risen to 1.8 this month. This means that, on average, a buyer has a choice of only 1, or now 1.8, home(s) that meet their requirements.

In Leidsche Rijn/Vleuten-De Meern the tightness indicator is slightly higher, at around 1.5, thanks to more new-build, but the market there remains tight too. The average sale price in Utrecht in September 2025 was around €507,000, slightly higher than a year earlier (+0.4%). In October 2025 it was €550,000. The price per square metre rose year-on-year by 2.2% to €6,664. This is mainly because the share of small, cheap flats among the transactions increased. In other words: the average price is falling or stagnating, but that's because more small homes are being sold; the price per square metre is actually still rising in many segments.

Overbidding in Utrecht

Overbidding remains the rule rather than the exception. In 2024, more than 88% of homes in Utrecht received bids above the asking price. This is continuing in 2025 too: in popular neighbourhoods such as Utrecht-Oost and Leidsche Rijn, the difference between asking price and transaction price was still around 10–15% in the autumn of 2025. Characterful family homes with a garden attract multiple bids and sell on average for 12–15% above the asking price. That certainly applies to scarce, spacious houses with good gardens, beautifully finished and preferably with an open-plan kitchen. Only in the segment of simpler flats has some room for negotiation emerged. Some homes may even sell below or around the asking price. We have already experienced being the only bidder in a tender, only for the seller to refuse to sell for that amount. The homes coming out of the rental sector are by no means always that popular with ‘buyers’.

Is the Utrecht housing market cooling down? Or will it keep rising?

The current cooling: is it really a cooling? Or does it only look that way in the figures because the supply has changed? The figures sometimes show a fall in the average price, but if we look under the bonnet, the market remains overheated. As long as single-family homes with a garden (and 4 bedrooms) remain so scarce, people moving up the ladder and families will keep overbidding each other to secure such a home. First-time buyers (couples) have slightly more choice than before, but still have to bid sharply on small flats, because m² prices remain high there too. But the nice little flats of up to about 45 m2 for singles are also selling like hot cakes. That group has it so hard, because renting is no longer possible and buying is almost impossible too. I find that really so sad.

At an average of 20 days, the selling time in Utrecht has risen slightly compared with the absolute low (around 14 days in early 2022). But make no mistake: the really popular homes are still snapped up in no time for a crazy amount.

NVM expectations

The NVM (Nederlandse Vereniging van Makelaars, the Dutch association of estate agents) expects national house prices to rise again in 2026 by around 4–5%. That is less than the extreme growth of previous years, but still above expected inflation and wage growth. In other words, homes are expected to become more expensive again relative to what people earn on average. According to the NVM, the number of transactions will stay about the same (around 233,000 homes per year nationally). So in Utrecht the pressure will remain: the sell-off wave temporarily gave first-time buyers some opportunities, but as soon as that wave dries up and the investors are gone, supply will shrink further again. Competition among buyers will then flare up as fiercely as ever. And I expect the market to be more overheated than ever in June, September and October 2026.

High interest rates: the lock-in effect and less mobility

Over the past two years, mortgage rates have risen sharply (and also fallen back a little). After 2022 rates shot up: for a 10-year fixed mortgage, from about 1.5% to about 4–5% in 2023. This means that, for example, a mortgage of €400,000 no longer cost €1,400 a month but well over €2,100. Those higher monthly costs have a strong braking effect on people moving up the ladder. During the low-interest period, many homeowners fixed their rate for a long time (for example 20 or 30 years at <2%). If they move now and have to take out a new (extra), more expensive mortgage at 4%, their monthly costs rise enormously. So they stay put. The extra rise in monthly costs is simply too high. This is the so-called lock-in effect.

De Nederlandsche Bank confirmed this effect. When mortgage rates rise, far fewer households put their home up for sale. People postpone moving because moving up has become financially unattractive. In itself that's not strange. Back then we too looked at very expensive houses, because our monthly payment would actually improve. If we moved from our home, then worth around €550,000, to a home of around €1,000,000 and took part of the mortgage interest-only, we would be €300 a month better off. And we weren't the only ones. Many people moved ‘simply because they could, not because they had to’. Especially for households that do want to upgrade to a bigger house, it means they would have to swap their favourable mortgage for a much more expensive one, or finance the remaining part at a higher rate.

Portable mortgage

There is a nuance, though: people moving up from an existing owner-occupied home sometimes have the option of taking their old low rate with them to a new mortgage. Many lenders offer a meeneemhypotheek (portable mortgage), where you keep your current interest rate for (part of) your loan when you move. This is still very favourable. As a result, people moving up generally still have a very favourable position in the housing market. For example, they finance the first €200,000 of their new home at 1.5% (old loan) and the rest at 3.5%, bringing their average rate to around 2.4%.

Thanks to this portability arrangement, we see that some of the people moving up keep moving after all, especially those with a lot of home equity. The upper price range (above €1 million), for example, has become somewhat more active. Many wealthy homeowners kept their very first flat as a rental investment, but are now deciding to sell it because of the unfavourable box 3 tax and the Wet Betaalbare Huur. They use that equity for the new house, which keeps their monthly costs low. Still, for the majority: moving pays off less than it used to. As a result, mid-range and family homes in particular remain scarce, because people stay put for longer.

In short, the interest rate rises have a double effect: they dampen the inflow of new buyers (especially first-time buyers, who can borrow less) and they limit the (most sought-after) supply, because fewer people sell their homes. This keeps the shortage going. Only when interest rates become (extremely) low again or wages rise sharply will this situation change.

Mortgage rates have just come down a little again. The question is: will this continue? Will rates keep falling? Then prices will keep rising.

Expats on the buying market due to a lack of rental homes

A striking development is the role of internationals (expats) in the Utrecht housing market. Traditionally, expats often rent, certainly when they plan a shorter stay or when their employer arranges (and pays for) housing. But now that the private rental supply is scarce and extremely expensive, expats are increasingly choosing to buy. In regions such as Amsterdam and Eindhoven this was already visible, and in Utrecht the effect is also starting to make itself felt. In Leidsche Rijn in particular, we notice more expats coming onto the market because they can no longer rent. These well-paid knowledge workers are competing with local first-time buyers and people moving up the ladder.

A nuance is needed, though: in absolute terms the share of expat buyers remains small. Nationally, less than 2% of all home buyers are internationals. In 2020 this was about 0.8%; in the first half of 2024 it was already around 1.8%, a doubling in five years. NVM figures confirm that expats are mainly active in specific areas (particularly Randstad cities and expat-friendly neighbourhoods). In some popular Amsterdam neighbourhoods a considerable share of buyers are now expats, but in Utrecht those percentages are lower. Still, here too we see expats coming forward, for example for new-build projects near the Uithof or in Leidsche Rijn Centrum. Especially now that the 30% ruling (a tax benefit for expats) keeps their net pay high, they can often bid just a little more than local first-time buyers.

So expats reinforce demand, particularly in the mid-priced and more expensive segments. At the same time, they are victims of the crisis in the rental market. Expats can't go and live with their parents or family. International employees increasingly struggle to find a rental home within the budget their company sets. Some companies temporarily house staff in aparthotels, or have to offer higher salaries because of the high housing costs. So there is a paradox: policy aimed at affordable rents is now pushing some expats towards buying, where they can push prices up further. All in all, however, their influence in Utrecht remains limited. The shortage would not be much smaller without expats, given the structural housing need. But every extra bidder with buying power is noticeable in a market where dozens of house-hunters turn up for one house.

Wage rises and affordability

A bright spot for home buyers is the strong wage growth of recent times. After years of modest wage development, collectively agreed (cao) wages rose sharply in 2023 and 2024. In 2024 cao wages rose by an average of 6.5%, the biggest increase in decades. This was partly driven by the high inflation of 2022/2023 and the tight labour market. Wages are expected to keep rising in 2025 and 2026. Somewhat more moderately, but still. The Centraal Planbureau (CPB) forecasts a cao wage increase of +4.8% in 2025 and +4.1% in 2026. Those are still above-average figures. By comparison: expected inflation is around 3.2% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. So wages are rising slightly faster than prices, which improves the purchasing power of working people.

For the housing market, this means that households' borrowing capacity is gradually increasing a little again. Dutch mortgage standards (NIBUD) link the maximum loan amount to income and the interest rate. So when salaries rise, people can borrow more. Wages already rose by about 5.4% in 2023, which played a role in the resumption of price rises at the time (buyers could bid just a little more thanks to their higher income).

Affordability remains a concern, however. Despite the wage rises, house prices have climbed so high that many first-time buyers and middle incomes are still stuck. The ratio of house price to income is skewed: the average mortgage amount in the Netherlands is 1.4 times gross annual salary. That in itself seems healthy, but this average is distorted by people moving up with low monthly costs. For first-time buyers, it is often a multiple of their annual salary that they have to borrow or put in from their own savings. In Utrecht, for example, we see that the average home sold in December was just 68 m² at a price of €442,000. If you convert that to the NHG limit (National Mortgage Guarantee)/affordability limit of €390,000, you get 60 m². That is far too small for a family. In other words: even with the current pay rises, a household with two average incomes still struggles to get hold of a suitable family home in Utrecht.

Many highly educated first-time buyers only manage thanks to financial support (a gift or inheritance) or by renting in the private sector after all and saving up. So the wage rises are very welcome, but they don't solve the core problem. There are simply too few houses and they have structurally become more expensive than people on a middle income can afford without help. We do see that the higher wages at least prevent house prices from even being able to fall sharply. As long as people have work and earn about 5% more every year, they will be willing (and able) to bid that little bit extra for a house.

Political plans and mortgage interest relief

Political uncertainty also plays out in the background of the housing market. In the run-up to the Tweede Kamer (Dutch parliament) elections of November 2023, the debate about mortgage interest relief (HRA) flared up again. Some parties (such as GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, CDA) argued for an accelerated phase-out of this deduction, while others (VVD, PVV, BBB) were in favour of keeping it or even strengthening it. In the end, the caretaker cabinet did not take any radical decision on this in 2024, but the discussion did cause unrest among home buyers. At the beginning of 2025 there was briefly panic in the market over reports that the new coalition would restrict mortgage interest relief further. First-time buyers in particular feared their borrowing capacity would fall if the tax support were phased out, and some put the brakes on their buying plans. But is that really necessary? It is already being phased out gradually. I was always taught that if you need the HRA to cover your monthly costs, your house is too expensive.

In reality this doesn't happen overnight. Mortgage interest relief has been phased out step by step since 2014. Whereas you used to be able to deduct interest at your highest tax bracket (max. 52%), in 2025 this rate is capped at 36.93% (equal to bracket 1). Further cutbacks are in the pipeline: from 2031 the first homeowners will complete their 30-year term and lose the right to the deduction. There are proposals to cut the deduction back by 5 percentage points every year after 2029, so that the HRA will have disappeared completely by 2048. Plans like that still sound far off, but are already causing unrest. Even so, experts stress that there is no reason to panic: a new coalition will not abolish the HRA in one go. Any changes will be announced well in advance and introduced gradually.

The owner-occupied home in box 3

A more extreme idea doing the rounds was the proposal to move the owner-occupied home entirely into box 3. If you ask me, that's truly ridiculous. It would mean your house (your home equity) is treated as wealth on which wealth yield tax has to be paid. This would replace the current notional addition to taxable income (eigenwoningforfait). For many housing market experts, this idea is an absolute no-go. It would be a fiscal landslide. Homeowners would then not only lose their interest deduction, but would have to pay tax every year on the (notional) return on their house. In a city like Utrecht, where WOZ values are often high (many above the so-called villa tax threshold of €1.2 million), this would be disastrous.

Imagine an older couple who have paid off their house and have a small pension. On paper you are then ‘rich’ because of the WOZ value, but you have little income. If the owner-occupied home were taxed in box 3, you could be forced to sell your house because you can't afford the tax. Scenarios like that meet with a lot of resistance. It is unlikely that this will become reality in the short term. But the very fact that some parties have floated it adds to the sentiment of uncertainty in the market.

National Housing Summit

The new political reality after 2023 is still searching for effective solutions to the housing crisis. In December 2024, at the Nationale Woontop (National Housing Summit), central government, municipalities, housing associations and developers agreed to step up new-build production to 100,000 homes a year (two thirds of them ‘affordable’). But almost at the same time, the cabinet announced the aforementioned box 3 increase (notional return 7.7%). It seems the government is trying to build with one hand and drive investors away with the other. Many experts therefore argue for consistent policy: make investing in rental homes pay again, simplify rules and encourage people to move up the ladder. In Utrecht, for example, building attractive homes for seniors could help, so that older residents free up their family homes; at the moment many older people stay in houses that are too big for lack of alternatives. So far, however, no drastic change of course has been made. The expectation is that political debates on these themes will continue in 2025–2026, with possible new measures as the pressure on the housing market remains politically untenable.

New-build: relief on the way in Utrecht?

Building activity is the structural key to a healthier housing market. Utrecht is growing at lightning speed. The city now has more than 361,000 inhabitants (early 2022) and expects to pass the 400,000 mark around 2028. Holy moly, what numbers for our little city. That means an ongoing need for thousands of new homes a year. Unfortunately, in practice new-build is lagging behind the forecasts. Whereas from 2019 to 2022 Utrecht delivered well over 3,000 new homes every year, this number dropped to about 2,156 in 2023 and even to 2,048 homes in 2024. The downward trend is due to rising construction costs, nitrogen rules and other regulations, but also because developers have become wary. Many projects have been put on hold now that buyers are more critical and financing is more expensive.

Still, a number of large Utrecht projects will be completed in 2025–2026 that could give the city some breathing space. A few examples:

• De Nieuwe Defensie (Utrecht-West) – the first homes are being delivered in this new urban district on the edge of the centre. In Q2 2026, 98 houses and flats will be ready. All the homes in the first phase have in fact already sold out completely. This shows that demand for new-build remains as high as ever, provided the location and price are attractive.
• Leidsche Rijn (various projects) – the VINEX district (a large planned expansion area) of Leidsche Rijn keeps growing. In Rijnvliet (Leidsche Rijn Zuid), construction of 229 homes started at the beginning of 2024, 176 of them for sale. The plan is for these houses to be delivered at the end of 2026. Some of these are much-needed single-family homes. In Leidsche Rijn Centrum and Leeuwesteyn, too, new flats and houses will be completed around 2025/2026, such as the Leeuwepoort project (58 flats in 2026) and BLOEI030 (264 rental homes in 2026, some of them mid-market), although the latter is for rent.
• Merwede and Cartesiusdriehoek – These are two large inner-city development areas. The first phases (such as Cïx Merwede phase 1) are under construction (started 2025). Merwede promises 6,000 homes in the long term, but delivery will be spread over many years and only a fraction will be ready by 2026. In the Cartesiusdriehoek (near the station area) the Nosara project is on sale (50 homes, delivery probably 2026).

The impact of this new-build on the market: locally, these projects can bring some relief. Leidsche Rijn, for example, has a slightly less tight market thanks to the many new-build homes. Buyers there have an average choice of 1.5 homes instead of 1. New-build flats can serve first-time buyers, but also older people or families who are splitting up. Families can find something in neighbourhoods like Rijnvliet or Leeuwesteyn. Every extra home counts, especially now that the sell-off wave is pushing many tenants towards buying. Moreover, more new-build transactions often get people moving: someone who moves into a new-build home often leaves behind an older home that becomes available again.

Still, we have to be realistic: new-build in Utrecht is no silver bullet in the short term. Many projects are struggling with delays or have been scaled back. Moreover, new-build homes are expensive: the price per m² is often even higher than for existing homes (building modern, gas-free and sustainable simply costs more). And with new-build you also have to pay for a home for a year before you can live in it. This often means that families would love to buy these homes but simply can't afford the bridging period.

In Utrecht-Leidsche Rijn Centrum, for example, prices for new-build flats sometimes went above €7,000 per m², which no longer feels affordable to many buyers. In addition, a sizeable share of the new homes is intended for rent (social rent via housing associations or the private sector via investors).

These are badly needed to get people moving out of social housing and for newcomers (such as young teachers, nurses and young people who don't want to buy yet). However, investors in mid-priced rentals are currently holding back because of the WBH and the box 3 tax. Plans to build private-sector rentals are regularly at risk of being scrapped or converted to homes for sale, because investors are dropping out.

In short, Utrecht will indeed be a few thousand homes richer in 2026, but this is nowhere near enough to eliminate the housing shortage or really bring prices down. At most it helps temper the wildest excesses a little and gives specific groups (such as families in Leidsche Rijn) slightly more opportunities. The housing shortage remains a fact for now.

Conclusion: paradoxes and prospects

The Utrecht housing market in 2025/2026 is full of paradoxes. On the one hand, more houses are for sale than in years; on the other, desirable homes remain as scarce as ever. New rules intended to protect tenants (buy-to-let protection, rent ceilings) are leading landlords to sell their houses, so the rental supply is drying up even further.

Investors, who were written off as slum landlords for years, are pulling out. Will we all soon realise that we badly need those investors? They are now investing their capital elsewhere and leaving a gap in the mid-market rental sector. This offers buying opportunities for some first-time buyers (more small flats available), but hurts the very tenants who were supposed to be protected. They can no longer find an affordable rental home and have to compete on the buying market or move back in with their parents.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates mean many homeowners are holding on to their homes, causing a shortage of larger homes. Houses that do come onto the market attract multiple bidders and often still sell above the asking price under great pressure, despite all the talk of cooling.

On the positive side, the economy is running at full speed: unemployment remains low (expected at 4% in 2025/26) and wages are rising steadily, so many people can actually cough up the high costs more easily than it sometimes seems when you hear the news.

Still, inequality in the housing market is growing. Anyone who already owns a home benefits from home equity and often a low interest rate, and is sitting on a gold mine. Anyone who wants to get in now has to be creative or have deep pockets. First-time buyers without help are the ones who lose out.

No radical turnaround is expected for 2026.

What would really be needed?

What would really be needed? In essence: build more, with less complexity. Speed up building plans and lower ambitions where possible (not every project has to be perfect and sustainable if that slows down building). Not every project needs to have a large social and affordable share. Because that means the homes for sale have to become too ‘expensive’ to get a loss-making business case into the black after all. Stable policy is needed, so developers and landlords dare to invest. Less red tape and more trust in market parties would help. Make letting pay again, and reward people for moving up the ladder instead of penalising them through tax. If politicians show some guts, 2026 could be the year of the turnaround. But to be fair, many don't dare to hope for that. And we certainly don't.

For now, home-seekers have to make do with what they've got. Do you own a well-maintained family home in Utrecht? Then you're still the lucky one. Do you want to stand out? And sell your home well? Do you want the right advice, backed up by figures? We'd be happy to come round and discuss your selling plans.

Looking for a house? Take a look at our listings.